Winning the lottery

So how do mental models work?

Here is a quick example of my model for getting rich:

1. Pick the right numbers.
2. Buy a lottery ticket.
3. Win the lottery.

Easy, right? Unfortunately, this is in conflict another mental model of mine:

1. My chance of getting hit by a bus are orders of magnitude greater than winning the lottery.
2. I live in London, with lots of buses, some of which drive extremely close to the side of the road.
3. If I play the lottery, chances are I’ve been hit by a bus.
4. I’d better not play the lottery.

If you think this is a bit far-fetched, you should see my normal mental models. But that’s okay… mental models don’t need to make sense, they just need to work. The important thing is to ask the questions:

• Does this mental model work for me?
• Is there something that might work better?